Life winners are often the lucky ones in probability
We often admire those “winners” who shine brightly on life’s stage, as if they were destined for success with unparalleled talent and wisdom. However, the truth is far more complex than we imagine. True “life winners” are often the lucky ones in terms of probability—they find themselves on the path to success among many possibilities, and that path is filled with elements of chance and luck.
A classic example is the legend of the Mona Lisa. Imagine this masterpiece, hailed as the world’s most famous painting, was for centuries almost unknown after its creation—forgotten in a corner of the French king’s palace, unnoticed by the public. Leonardo da Vinci delayed finishing the painting for 16 years, and it did not cause a sensation at the time; even when it was moved to the Louvre after the French Revolution, it did not attract attention.
What truly made the Mona Lisa famous was an accidental theft. In 1911, a Louvre employee named Peruggia, out of patriotism, stole the painting and tried to return it to Italy. This bold act sparked a media frenzy, greatly increasing public interest. Later attacks on the painting, such as acid splashes and stone throws, only fueled more attention and imitation, gradually turning it into the most widely recognized symbol of art worldwide.
This is a typical “probability winner” case—the success of the Mona Lisa is not only due to its artistic value but also because of a series of accidental events. In other words, success often accompanies uncertainty and lucky coincidences, rather than being a simple accumulation of ability and effort.
Don’t over-rely on historical experience to predict the future
We tend to view life and history as a linear story of clear cause and effect, believing that past experience can perfectly predict the future. However, this overlooks the role of probability and randomness in complex systems.
For example, on October 31, 1979, Western Airlines Flight 2605 mistakenly landed on a closed runway at Mexico City airport and collided with ground vehicles. The investigation revealed that multiple factors combined to cause the accident:
- Pilot and navigator fatigue
- Communication failures between air traffic control and crew
- Radio signal malfunctions
- Fog reducing visibility
- Controller misjudgment
Psychologist Robin Dowse points out that any one of these factors alone usually would not cause an accident, but when they occur simultaneously, tragedy happens.
However, if we observe forward in time, these five factors often coexist without accidents occurring. The direct linking of these factors to the accident is an example of the “post hoc fallacy”—wrongly assuming that because event A happened before event B, A must have caused B. In reality, historical causality is far more complex, with many random variables intertwined.
Historical stories are carefully woven “good stories”
The historical narratives we are familiar with appear rational and rigorous but are often as engaging and dramatic as novels. History is often simplified into clear cause-effect stories highlighting heroes and key events. It has a beginning and an end, fitting our human love for stories.
Yet real history is full of complexity, randomness, and ambiguity. The details that are omitted or ignored are often closer to the truth. Our understanding of history is more an explanation and narration of events after they happened, rather than the true causal mechanisms behind them.
There is no simple cause-and-effect relationship
Common sense tells us certain traits, events, or individuals reasonably explain success or failure. But these explanations are mostly retrospective simplifications of history. Combining history and common sense can easily lead us into the illusion of causality.
This illusion makes us believe we can predict the future by observing the past. Yet many successes are actually the result of overlapping chance factors—probability winners, not inevitable winners.
Social spreading: chance outweighs special individuals
In social media and trends, we often hear claims that “key opinion leaders” (KOLs) decide everything. But research shows the truth is far more complicated.
At the end of 2009, a study tracked 74 million information cascades from over 1.6 million users, finding that 98% of cascades never spread widely. Although users with many followers are more likely to trigger spread, success in individual cases is highly random.
Successful spread depends on the entire network structure, not just individuals. Like a forest fire only spreads extensively under the right wind, temperature, and humidity, social trends need a receptive population in the network. Even ordinary people can ignite a “firestorm” under the right conditions.
This means predicting an individual’s influence without knowing their network position is nearly impossible.
: Embrace uncertainty, become a probability winner
In life, we cannot fully control destiny. Success is often a complex product of ability, effort, and random events. Recognizing probability and chance not only humbles us but also helps us seize opportunities more wisely.
To become a winner in life is not just a matter of strength, but also of standing at the right nodes of probability. Understanding and accepting this might be the true starting point for happiness and success.